Sunday, July 14, 2013

764. On activism, or "Who is my neighbor?, He who showed mercy."

  •  
    The readings today were Saint Luke's version of the Good Samaritan story which asks "Who is our neighbor?" and answers "He who showed mercy." followed by Jesus's prompt to "Go and do likewise." Doing likewise is different things for different people.

    Much to the chagrin of several of my liberal-activist friends, I'm not the ideal activist. The truth is I'm not much of an activist at all. I have firm beliefs and convictions and other than trying to get people to vote for one candidate over another (because I think she or he better represents my beliefs and convictions), you will not find me in the front rows of protests or the front pews at church. I stand or sit in the back, content with my beliefs, in the fervent hope that others will see the wrongs of their beliefs and after an epiphany come to agree with me. I know it isn't very forceful at all.
     
    Honestly, I'm tolerant. Keep in mind, tolerance doesn't equal acceptance, but I am tolerant. Again, tolerance doesn't equal acceptance. So when asked to pray for a limited group as I was this morning when a friend specifically requested prayers for my Jewish and atheist friends (she is one of both), I simply say "yes I will do that."  What I admittedly don't do (and I think this is what some would wish I did) is say "why be so exclusive?"
     
    I accept their vibes and am hopeful they accept mine. And I will work to try to elect politicians who think more my way than theirs. So, I'm not an evangelizer nor am I an activist. But I am a believer. 
     
    There is a poem, My Philosophy, by James Whitcomb Riley, which my uncle Bob Lewis (1918-2008) had me memorize when I was eight years old. It explains a lot of my political temperament, even to this day. Here is the poem:
     
    MY PHILOSOFY 
    by James Whitcomb Riley.

    I ain't, ner don't p'tend to be,
    Much posted on philosofy;
    But thare is times, when all alone,
    I work out idees of my own.
    And of these same thare is a few
    I'd like to jest refer to you--
    Pervidin' that you don't object
    To listen clos't and rickollect.

    I allus argy that a man
    Who does about the best he can
    Is plenty good enugh to suit
    This lower mundane institute--
    No matter ef his daily walk
    Is subject fer his neghbor's talk,
    And critic-minds of ev'ry whim
    Jest all git up and go fer him!

    I knowed a feller onc't that had
    The yeller-janders mighty bad,--
    And each and ev'ry friend he'd meet
    Would stop and give him some receet
    Fer cuorin' of 'em. But he'd say
    He kindo' thought they'd go away
    Without no medicin', and boast
    That he'd git well without one doste.

    He kep' a-yellerin' on--and they
    Perdictin' that he'd die some day
    Before he knowed it! Tuck his bed,
    The feller did, and lost his head,
    And wundered in his mind a spell--
    Then rallied, and, at last, got well;
    But ev'ry friend that said he'd die
    Went back on him eternally!

    Its natchurl enugh, I guess,
    When some gits more and some gits less,
    Fer them-uns on the slimmest side
    To claim it ain't a fare divide;
    And I've knowed some to lay and wait,
    And git up soon, and set up late,
    To ketch some feller they could hate
    Fer goin' at a faster gait.

    The signs is bad when folks commence
    A-findin' fault with Providence,
    And balkin' 'cause the earth don't shake
    At ev'ry prancin' step they take.
    No man is grate tel he can see
    How less than little he would be
    Ef stripped to self, and stark and bare
    He hung his sign out anywhare.

    My doctern is to lay aside
    Contensions, and be satisfied:
    Jest do your best, and praise er blame
    That follers that, counts jest the same.
    I've allus noticed grate success
    Is mixed with troubles, more er less,
    And it's the man who does the best
    That gits more kicks than all the rest.
     
    *****
     
    By the way, to loyal readers of the blog, this isn't the first time this poem have been cited herein.
     
    JN 

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

763. Swabbing the Fourth Amendment

I've been searching, tongueswab-in-cheek, for any Fourth Amendment comments on Facebook or Twitter. There are surprisingly few. Anyone secure enough in their persons willing to submit? Between my liberal friends and my Libertarian friends, am I the only one thinking Scalia warrants an oath of affirmation?


Saturday, May 11, 2013

762. A little road trip - and an excuse to post

Thanks to my friend Keenan Wilson, I made a short road trip out into the heartland of the Commonwealth today.  Keenan, from Radcliff in Hardin County, today joins the ranks of college graduates turned over from their in loco parentis overseers to face the world.

For Keenan, the overseeing college was Saint Catherine College, a Dominican based school just outside of Springfield, Kentucky at the dead end of the old US 150, a couple of miles west of downtown and about 58 miles southeast of Louisville.

For his persistence in getting an education, Keenan was today awarded a Bachelor of Arts degree during the 81st Commencement Ceremonies at the school, which was initially founded in 1823.  Congrats to Keenan.

I had made him the promise of attending the ceremonies thus giving me an excuse to pursue a favorite hobby, driving the old roads and highways of Kentucky.  This trip covered very little in the way of a new route, although one of the main routes along the way has been rerouted on some new land, this being US150 beginning right at the college's property west of town.

The new US150 winds around the north side of Springfield and a new roundabout was built at the college's formal entrance, connecting the new road with the old road and the college.  The ceremony began with College President William D. Huston explaining the delay in beginning the commencement was due to an accident involving a semi-trailer in the roundabout, something he said was getting to be all to common.

I can only think of a few roundabouts in Louisville.  The most famous one encircles Enid Yandell's statue of Daniel Boone at the entrance to Cherokee Park, at Eastern Parkway and Cherokee Road.  As an historical note, I would add that location is neither the original entrance to the park nor the original location of the statue.  There is another roundabout in my friend Preston's subdivision in far northeastern Jefferson County, where Hunting Creek Drive begins on one side of the circle and splits into Westover Drive going east and Deep Creek Drive going south.  There is a "sort-of" extended roundabout in front of the Louisville Zoo along Trevilian Way, a signature project of the current councilman representing that area, Jim King.  Another roundabout has been planned for many years in "downtown" Fairdale, connecting Fairdale Road, Mitchell Hill Road, West Manslick Road, and Mount Holly Road.  I am sure there are others here and there.

So, my purpose today was to get from here along the Left Bank of the Ohio River near Milepost 606 to there, at the new roundabout on the old US150, just west of Springfield.  The road travelled today is one often travelled; the most direct route from here to there - essentially out I-65 to the Clermont exit (also known as the Bernheim Forest exit, and gaining popularity as the Jim Beam exit) which is KY245.  KY245 runs along a northwest-southeast corridor from KY61 (Preston Highway) on the west to and through the northside of Bardstown where it serves as a by-pass of sorts, ending at US150, the Springfield Road, on the southeast side of Bardstown.  At one time this road ended at N. Third Street in Bardstown, the road to Louisville, but it was pushed through about twenty years ago.

From the southeast side of Bardstown, the road to St. Catherine used to be a straight shot since the college is located on what was the main road into Springfield.  Recently, however, US150 has been routed around the north and east sides of Springfield along a new mostly two-lane concrete highway with wide emergency lanes and even wide shoulders.  I followed the new road as far as KY55, or Bloomfield Road, which I took into town and angled back to the west to the college, making my first encounter with the new roundabout from the east, and entering the college proper.

Although this entry is about the roadtrip, it would be disrespectful at this point not to acknowledge (again) the graduation of my friend Keenan.  For the school, this was a day of firsts.  In addition to their Baccalaureate program, this past year they introduced a "Commander College" program for Washington County high school students and the first of this class also participated in today's program.  Another new group of students included those receiving Master's Degrees, the first year of completion for this program as well.  But, I digress.

Upon leaving the ceremony, as is my wont, I travelled a different path getting back to the Derby City.  Returning (almost) to town, I took a right onto KY55 and proceeded south on a road officially known as the Western By-Pass, but usually just called the By-Pass.  Further south the old road joins from town and it is known as Lebanon Hill Road - the road into Lebanon.  Once in Lebanon, KY55 is known as N. Spalding Avenue for a distance and along this distance is the historic antebellum home Myrtledene, built in 1833, at the southwest corner of Saint Rose Road and N. Spalding Avenue.  The home is operated as a Bed and Breakfast by the innkeeper, James Spragens, and is somehow, I'm not clear how, affiliated with the family of a young Republican banker friend of mine, Sean Holleran, formerly of this town but now residing in Evansville.

I followed KY55 into town on N. Spalding and out of town on W. Main Street, where it joins US68 and heads southwest towards Campbellsville.  Not too far along the way, I turned right on KY426 and headed west.  This was the southernmost point of today's journey so far.  I followed KY426 west to its intersection with KY84, which would be my main road west to begin the northward trip home.

KY84 is a long sometimes meandering and sometimes straightway road, running through Raywick and Howardstown and around the hills of Cecil Ridge, then crossing the Rolling Fork (of Salt River), which was running high itself due to the recent rains.  KY84 eventually joins US31E between Bardstown and Hodgenville at a wide place in the road known as White City.  US31E/KY84 follows Main Street into town and around Lincoln Square - another roundabout - and follow south out of town along Lincoln Boulevard.  At Tanner Road, KY84 breaks off to the west and shortly thereafter becomes Sonora Road, the road which will take us to I-65 and the return trip northward.  There's about nine miles between this turn-off and Sonora but our travels only takes us about 8 1/2 miles to the intersection with I-65 North, about equally south as the corner of KY55 and KY426, and the return trip through or around Elizabethtown, Colesburg, Lebanon Junction, Shepherdsville, Brooks, and Okolona, to Louisville.

A very pleasant ride in the heartland of the Commonwealth.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

761. Legislative Unease

(The following are remarks I made at today's Quarterly Meeting of the Kentucky Democratic Party.  The meeting was held at the Hilton Hotel in Lexington).

Mr. Chair and members of the Committee --

Last week the Kentucky Senate passed a bill which would allow Kentuckians to disobey certain Federal laws and certain Federal Executive Orders.  Such laws are known as Nullification Laws.  They aren’t new and most have been struck down over the years by what is known as the Supremacy Clause of the United States Constitution.

Nullification isn’t a new idea for Kentucky.  We were the second state to offer such laws, the Kentucky Resolutions, back in 1799.  Virginia, our mother-state, beat us to it in 1798.  And over time many states in all parts of the country have passed laws which have come to be known as Nullification Laws.  We’re not paving the way with any new ideas, but we are jumping on the bandwagon of many states which are, for their own reasons, unhappy about the administration of Barack Obama, our recently re-elected Democratic president.  The current national leader of the nullification movement is our own United States Senator Rand Paul. 

That our Senate has followed the direction of Rand Paul is not a surprise – we all know the Senate is controlled by the Republicans and, unfortunately, is likely to remain so for some time.  My greater concern is that with the exception of my senator Gerald Neal, my favorite senator from Lexington Kathy Stein, and my favorite newest Democratic senator, Morgan McGarvey, every other Democratic senator has followed Rand Paul’s lead on this matter.

It is my belief that when our state and the other 49 joined the union, by their participation in the Federal government, they agreed to participate in all of it.  As a Louisvillian, there have been times when I have accepted the fact that Louisville sends considerably more money to Frankfort than we receive in return.  This is part of the compact we as Louisvillians have with our fellow Kentuckians.  It is a good thing.  In the reverse manner, we as Kentuckians should be grateful to the Federal government, with all its warts and shortcomings, as we receive in return much more than we send to Washington, DC.  I’ve expressed my concerns about this vote to two senators who were yes votes in whose campaigns I have played a part - and wanted to extend knowledge of my dissatisfaction to this body.

On a different matter, and in the other house of the General Assembly, I am also concerned and dissatisfied.  Two days ago, the Kentucky House, in the name of religious freedom, passed a law which subverts the gains Kentucky and a few - very few - of its local communities have made with regard to civil rights protections for lesbians, gays, and others.  In the name of religious freedom, which I would call religious preference, something forbidden by the United States Constitution, our House passed a law by an overwhelming vote – seven Democrats voting no and the balance of the Chamber in favor – which could strip away discrimination protections in the name of religious freedom.

Two attempts were made by my representative in the House, Darryl Owens, to amend the bill, one passed and one was not called for a vote - both in the name of protecting the gains made in civil rights over the years, and especially in the cities of Vicco, Covington, Lexington, and Louisville.

Each of these bills now head to the other Chamber where both will likely be passed. Each bill needs work and if passed as written I would hope Governor Beshear would give the General Assembly more time to think through their votes by vetoing these horrible pieces of legislation.

Thank You.

JEFF NOBLE, 3rd CD Committeeman

Saturday, February 23, 2013

760. A little Wilde.

“Life is not governed by will or intention. Life is a question of nerves, and fibers, and slowly built-up cells in which thought hides itself and passion has its dreams. You may fancy yourself safe, and think yourself strong. But a chance tone of color in a room or a morning sky, a particular perfume that you had once loved and that brings subtle memories with it, a line from a forgotten poem that you had come across again, a cadence from a piece of music that you had ceased to play - I tell you that it is on things like these that our lives depend.”

From Oscar Wilde's The Picture of Dorian Gray, 1890.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

759. Counting counties

My seven faithful readers know that each year there has been an accounting of the counties in Kentucky visited by Yours Truly during the course of the previous year.  As has been previously explained, since 1979 I have maintained a series of maps of the Commonwealth on which I mark the counties I visit through the course of the year. 

Over the years the number varies and only twice has it to the mountaintop, so to speak, in those years where my feet somehow touched terra firma in all 120 of Kentucky's junior fiefdoms.  That was not the case in 2012 when the number reached just past the 1/3 mark at 41 counties visited.  And, as has been the case in every year except 1979 and 1987, neither Lawrence nor Elliott were among them.

There are the stand-bys - all close to Louisville, Frankfort, and Lexington, with trips made between the three cities on a regular basis.  Fayette was the first county visited in 2012 since I had celebrated New Year's Eve in, as one friend calls it, the Center of the Universe.

The northernmost county visited was technically Boone since it extends more northward than any other county, but the northernmost point in the state I actually visited was in Campbell on a road trip with my dear friend Preston Bates.  We trekked along KY8 heading east out of Newport before returning later than evening and having dinner at a Mexican restaurant on Monmouth Street.

My trip to Charlotte for the 2012 Democratic National Convention afforded the southernmost point, at Exit #11 of I-75 in Williamsburg, Kentucky and Whitley County, just north of the Tennessee line.  I stopped there on the way down, but not on the way back.

To the east was a brief visit into Owsley County while travelling one afternoon with my friend Aaron Jent, the same trip where we walked across the Natural Bridge a few counties over.  That was a fine afternoon ride.

Finally the westernmost place visited was in Hawesville, in Hancock County.  I usually get much further west than this, but illness prevented my usual trip to West Kentucky and Fancy Farm.  On the day before Thanksgiving, determined that Muldraugh wasn't going to be my westernmost city this past year, I drove westward on US60 and other routes to the Hancock County seat where I toured the old Court House and had a conversation with County Judge/Executive Jack McCaslin, a Democrat who first took office in 1999.

That the report.  We'll see if 2013 takes us more places.  So far, sixteen days in, I haven't as yet left the bounds of Jefferson County.


Wednesday, January 2, 2013

758. Kerry and Cuba

Opening the doors of Cuba is something I have believed in for over three decades. I have never understood America's stance on the matter, from either the left or the right, and especially after the fall of most of the world's Communist states. Anytime there is a glimmer of hope, it gets my attention. It was one of the two things I thought George W. Bush got right and he came close. But then the powers-that-be got to him and he backed off. The other was his green-card-to-freedom program for immigrants working in America. It, too, has been met by a deaf ear from the current administration, much to my dissatisfaction. I'm hoping a lame-duck second term and a different Secretary of State will allow the president to realign his priorities in these matters.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

757. Some numbers

First, my apologies for missing the Winter Solstice, Christmas, the final Full Moon of 2012, and, more recently, the New Year celebration.  They've been covered in the past and there is little to add.  Minus any bad gifts or bad dates for New Year's Eve, there are minimal changes in how these are celebrated.  And, they happen with precision.  The Solstice, the Full Moon, Christmas, and New Year.  But that precision is determined in different ways.  And that is sort of (the opposite of) what this entry is about.

Solstices and Full Moons don't happen at the exact same time every year or month.  While solstices have only happened, to my knowledge, in June and December, like their counterparts, the equinoxes, which only happen in March and September, full moons come and go on a moving pattern about every 28 days, so they roam through the dates on a calendar.  Christmas and New Year, however, are well-established on their dates of December 25 and January 1.  If someone wishes to take me task on that latter date, that is ok.  I am aware that the Romans cited March 1 as their New Year.

But this entry isn't even about that except for the part dealing with numbers.  As my seven faithful readers may or may not know, I have a fascination with numbers, one which is manifested in many different ways.  I like the way they interact, I like the way they add up, multiply, divide, and diminish.  I even like their fractions, perfect numbers, prime numbers, denominators, and numerators.  All of it.  I've made something of a career out of it.

Thus, I've been pleased to have lived my life in the time frame I have as I've been witness to some interesting dates over time.  In this essay, by dates I will not always mean things like March 23 or December 13 or June 30 or September 2, all of which do have my attention for one reason or another.  I might mean their corresponding dates, such as 03/23 or 12/13 or 06/30 or 09/02.  You get the idea.

During my lifetime we've lived through some interesting combinations of dates.  The numbers assigned to make up our dates, we must accept, are arbitrary.  We currently operate under what is known as the Gregorian Calendar.  It was put in place by Pope Gregory in the days when a pope could do such things.  It replaced the Julian calendar.  It was adopted in the United Kingdom, and thus the British colonies, on September 2, 1752, which was then followed by September 14, 1752.  Not everywhere adopted it at the same time.  Russia didn't start using it until January 31, 1918.  Alaska's calendar changed from the former Julian calendar, also named for a pope, between the British adoption and the Russian adoption, when its ownership changed hands in what is sometimes referred to as Seward's Folly, the purchase of Alaska by the United States.  The treaty approving the purchase passed the Senate in April 1867 with a six month delay in taking effect.  Thus, October 6, 1867 was followed by October 18, 1867, in America's Last Frontier.  Some of you have heard the reference to Seward's Folly since high school history classes.  If you have been to see the movie Lincoln, he, Seward, after Lincoln, played one of the largest roles in the handling of the Civil War, a most interesting character.  But, I digress.  

As stated, the calendar is ever-changing, even if in miniscule ways, such as leap-seconds.  A leap second is added, usually unbeknownst to most of us, now and then so that our clocks are in accord with the passage of a day, which in lay terms is the amount of time between the passes of the sun directly overhead.  The most recent leap-second was added at the end of the 23rd hour and the 59th minute of that hour and after the 59th second of that minute on June 30th just six months ago.  Did you feel it?  They are added either at that point on June 30 or at that same point on December 31, which is when one was added in both 2005 and 2008.  The more common change of the calendar is the one we all do experience every four years in February when a leap-day is added.  2012 was one such year.  But here is one of those extraordinary days that caught my attention, in a reverse sort of way.  Back in 2000, you remember Y2K, we added, as might be expected, a leap-year day and called it February 29, 2000.  But, there wasn't a leap-year day added in 1700, 1800, or 1900.  Nor will there be one in 2100, 2200, or 2300.  Every hundred years, according to the rules, we don't add one, unless the first two digits of that year is divisible by four, as was the 20 in 2000.  And we were there.

I don't remember when dates and numbers first caught my attention.  I do remember recognising at a very young age that my brother and I were each born on a prime number, he on the 17th, me on the 23rd.  I remember noticing the birthday of a girl I dated in high school, Janice.  Her birthday was January 9, or 1/9.  And she was born in 1962.  Her birthday could read 1/9/62, from 1962.  A little thing, but it got my attention.  The same would be true of anyone born on January 9th, at least in the 20th century.  But because there is no 0th day of February, that little fascination went out of style almost fourteen years ago.

Some other oddities we've lived through are more palindromic years than usual, meaning two.  Since the year 1000, palindromic years have been 110 years apart.  For example, 1001, 1111, 1221, 1331, and so forth.  But we who have lived in the last 22 years have made it through two in that 110 year window, 1991 and 2002.  The next one will be 2112, then 2222, and so on.  I remember working this out in my head in 1991, an exceptionally bad year for me and I was looking for reasons as to why that was the case.  We also have had the fortune of living through all the repetitive dates and even times.  Just three weeks ago was the much flaunted 12/12/12.  There were also 11/11/11 and 10/10/10.  But we cannot count the others because of that 0 ahead of the final digit.  I have two friends, Bobby and Morgan, who were born on 8/8 and 10/10 respectively.  My former boss and friend, E. Porter Hatcher, Jr., who passed away three days ago, was born on 9/9.  My step-nephew, Jimmy Jones, was born on 5/5.  He was born in the palindromic year 1991, giving him a double fun-fact.  I've often tried to co-relate my parents' birth dates of 11/1 and 1/22.  Surely there is something there, you'd think.

Two more thoughts.  First, years with consecutive numbers.  Admittedly, none of us have lived in a consecutive in-a-row year, what the Lottery would call a straight-box.  The last one was 1234 and the next one is 2345.  But we have lived in two which were made up of consecutive numbers.  These were 1980 and, now, 2013.  The next will be in 2019 and hopefully many of us will see it.  The next after that is 2091, presumed to be out-of-reach.

Finally, to my readers and friends under the age of 25, this is an historic year for you. It is the first year of your life that one of the digits isn't a repeater.  Every year from 1988 to 2012 has been made up of only three different numbers amongst the four digits, and in two cases, only two different figures - 1999 and 2000.  2013 is the first year since 1987 that the four numbers are all different.

So, it really is a new year, at least as far as numbers go.

Happy New Year.  Celebrate!

Thursday, December 20, 2012

756. Solstice

Thursday, and possibly the world if pop culture has it right, comes to an end.

Finished the Yarmuth mailing and, with Michael, delivered it to the Post Office. Then had a pleasant meal at North End where neither of us apparently thought enough of it to "check-in" with the other.

Tomorrow is one of my favorite days, the Winter Solstice, the feasts of Saturnalia and Yuletide, and in Wales Lá an Dreoilín. It has been borrowed by Christians to celebrate the birth of Christ and is a common marker for a new year. On some calendars it is Midwinter or even the mid-year, especially for students.

The shortest day, the longest night.

So, celebrate and enjoy - here's to Best Wishes for Earth's next journey around the Sun. AMEN.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

P7. Prayers

The seventh in a series of Prayers of the People, written for the Episcopal Church of the Advent.  See Entry #736 for a full explanation.

*****

PRAYERS FOR THE FOURTH SUNDAY OF LENT, APRIL 3, 2011

Reader:  As we journey forward through the Lenten season, let us pray for the world and all those in need, responding to O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

For the people of your creation throughout the world, and for those who are blinded by the real and unreal issues of our time, and for those who have seen and believed, we pray O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

For all the leaders of the world, in this special season, may they use their powers and resources for moderation in our use of fossil fuels which pollute our environment, diverting our limited resources from those in need, we pray O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

For our national leaders, especially our President Barack and our military personnel, we seek the success of their goals and their safe return home from Libya, Afghanistan, and other sites of deployment, we pray O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

For ourselves to be shepherded through our decisions affecting our environment; bringing light to the creation and use of new technologies; bringing acceptance of the need to reuse, recycle, and reclaim; and exposing the unfruitful works of darkness to find all that is good and right and true, we pray O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

For the needs of your church in the Anglican Communion for the Diocese of Multan, Pakistan; in the Diocese of Kentucky for the Kentucky Council of Churches, and in the Highland Community Ministries for Immanuel United Church of Christ, and for our Presiding Bishop Katharine, our Rector Tim, our Deacon Eva, and for all those who minister in our Parish, and for those on Advent’s prayer list [names go here], in fervent hope that all these know you as their shepherd, and that goodness and mercy shall abide with us forever, we pray O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

We pray for the dying and the deceased in our family and parish, for [names go here].  Give the living your peace and consolation, and the dead a home in the Church Eternal, we pray O Lord Our Shepherd, Shine On Us!

Presider:  O God of our Earth, our temporal home, give us the light and wisdom to awake and protect our planet, to sustain it in our days and for all the days to come we pray, and to one day hear the call of Sleeper, awake!, Rise from the dead, and let Christ will shine upon you.  Amen.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

755. I was wrong - he did much better

The presidential race has finally officially ended with the posting of Florida's Electoral College votes under the Obama column, an apparent win of 55,000 votes.  This brings the president's tally to 332 to 206.  A landslide, although not of the proportion of his first win against Senator John McCain.  Those numbers were 365-173.  In 2008, then-Senator Obama garnered 69,297,997 votes to McCain's 59,597,52.  Those numbers are higher than the turnout this year which presently show the president with 61,715,465 to Governor Romney's 58,507, 338.  By either tally - the popular vote or the Electoral College, the one that counts, the 44th President of the United States has been re-elected.  Thanks Be To God.

Now, to be honest, that 332-206 tally is well above my prediction - or predictions.  One prediction had the president winning on the slimmest of margins - 270 to 268.  Then I went out on a limb and made it 271-267.  Wow was I wrong.  But, that's ok.  I erred on the side that Governor Romney did - that he would win the Independents - and he did.  What neither of us foresaw was the return to the polls of women and minorities for the president, and in particular Latinos, who wander in and out of both parties and political ideologies like the revolving door of a Wal-Mart.  Latinos voted for the president's re-election by 71%.  My guess is the Republican Party's hardlines on immigration have much to do with the swing in this body of voters.  Women voters were all over the board in the pre-election polling.  Prominent faux-pas by Republican candidates for the United States Senate helped many candidates up and down the tickets.  Women as a group had a great day with 10 new women, 9 Democrats and 1 Republican, joining the most exclusive club on earth.  When the polls closed, the president had also fared well with this decisive group of voters, receiving 55% of their ballots.

Young voters did not vote for the president in the numbers they did in 2008, but he still won the under-30 crowd, and especially in the swing states, where he improved his margins with the youth vote, of which he received 69%.

In the end, it was the swing states which won for the president.  This time they swung left with one exception, North Carolina.

My guess is the 2016 race will be much easier for the Democrats.  By that time both North Carolina and Texas will have become considerably "bluer" in political complexion.  Winning the Electoral College gets much easier if you can allocate early on the 38 votes from the Lone Star State or the 15 from North Carolina.

One more note - Kentucky.  Kentucky got redder.  In 2008 John McCain won Kentucky with 57.4% to Obama's 41.2.  Romney improved on that number getting 61% to the president's 38%.  In  some counties, the results defy reason.  Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky led the state percentage-wise for Governor Romney with  90% of the vote, 4439 to 433 - wow!  Other counties with high percentages for Romney were Owsley (87), Jackson (86), Clay (84), and several others (81).  The president carried only four counties in the Commonwealth, down from eight in 2008.  Only Jefferson gave him more than 50% with a tally of 186164 to 148415.  The other three winning for Obama were Fayette - 49 to 48%, Franklin - a near tie of 49% with the president besting Romney by 190 votes, and the always reliably Democratic Elliott County, where it was 49% to 47%.  Would these numbers were bluer.  Alas and alack.

Well, on to 2016.  At this point, I'm supporting Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland - but it's early.



Saturday, November 3, 2012

754. A wild guess


A few days back I posted my Electoral College prediction for next Tuesday's election.  That has the president winning the college vote 270 to 268 - a win is a win.

Today's entry is my prediction for the race between Congressman John Yarmuth and his Republican opponent. 

I've shared this with a few people including the congressman in a phone text sent on November 1.  There is an error in the percentages, pointed out by my friend Stuart Perelmuter, as they do not take into account any votes received by the third candidate in the race, another man whose name I cannot recall, or any write-ins.  So much for precision.

Here are my predictions for the two standard-bearers.

John Yarmuth - 211430
His Republican Opponent - 150103

Like I said, a wild guess.  We'll see.

Three more days.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

753. A Constitutional discussion on Facebook

 What follows is a discussion copied from my Facebook page, one which followed a post I made about the silence of certain folks in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
 First, some identification of those involved in the discussion, in order of appearance, other than me.
Thomas A. "Tony" McAdam is an attorney in downtown Louisville.  Tony and I have been friends many years.  We also disagree in large degrees as to the administration of the Republic and other issues of national concern.
Bob Layton is an attorney and Democratic Party activist in Fayette County.
Tyler Hess is in his young 20s and is an environmental activist and student of sustainable agriculture.
Dorothy Howard is a Facebook friend, the older sister of a women with whom I attended elementary and high school, and a Democrat.
Jeremy Tyler is a 25 year old libertarian/Republican supporter of Ron Paul.  He is an Econ/PoliSci graduate of the University of Louisville.
Will Cox is an attorney in Madisonville where he recently served a term as Mayor and before that as Councilman.
 Ken Stammerman is a retired State Department official, a 1965 graduate of Bellarmine College who has recently undertaken lay studies at nearby Saint Meinrad School of Theology.
Read through the arguments and comment if you wish.
  -- Jeff
My original post -- 
The small government and anti-government libertarian and Tea Party folks are noticeably quiet today. The only person we've heard from was, all of people, Bush's FEMA Director Mike "Helluva Job" Brown, who criticized President Obama for responding too quickly to Sandy, something no one accused Bush or Brown of doing with Katrina. An interesting quietude of their part.

Thomas A. McAdam James Madison is the acknowledged father of the constitution. In 1794, when Congress appropriated $15,000 for relief of French refugees who fled from insurrection in San Domingo to Baltimore and Philadelphia. James Madison wrote disapprovingly, "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents." I will gladly contribute from my meager treasure to aid the sufferers of this storm, but I think it is clear that the constitution does not allow the federal government to coerce citizens into paying for disaster relief. It is not a question of compassion. It is a question of the rule of law. Either we support and defend our constitution, or we don't. And if we don't, God help us.

Jeff Noble Article 1, Section 8, Clause 1 - The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.

Bob Layton Now, Jeff. If you're going to actually quote the Constitution to those who say they're defenders of the Constitution, it's just going to cause all kinds of problems. Next you'll be expecting them to actually read the Constitution they're defending!

Tyler Hess I'm definitely fine with not supporting the Constitution Tom. I don't support it on its unacknowledgement of the rights of more than half of this country. Written by elitist white men, it is a document that is old and putrid for use in the 21st century. I am for a society based on moral interdependence of social human beings, rather than an abstract wrinkly racist piece of paper.

Dorothy Howard Yep! Jeff, I wish more folks would read the whole constitution. I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, but I am so sick and tired of people who claim they love their country and all the time go around hating on the best aspects of our country...

Thomas A. McAdam James Madison advocated for the ratification of the Constitution in The Federalist and at the Virginia ratifying convention upon a narrow construction of the clause, asserting that spending must be at least tangentially tied to one of the other specifically enumerated powers, such as regulating interstate or foreign commerce, or providing for the military, as the General Welfare Clause is not a specific grant of power, but a statement of purpose qualifying the power to tax.

Thomas A. McAdam In fairness, I should add that in the last 70 years, the U.S. Supreme Court has tended to agree with Jeff's broad interpretation of Article 1, Section 8, Clause 1. More's the pity.

Jeff Noble Hat tip.

Dorothy Howard Well....Thomas, when you are mugged don't call those tax funded police, when your house is on fire don't call those tax funded firemen, when you fly on an airplane don't expect the tax funded air traffic controllers to keep you out of harms way, etc.

Thomas A. McAdam And, I am sorry Tyler does not support our constitution. That is his right, but I'm not sure he can call himself a loyal American if he refuses to protect and defend the constitution.

Thomas A. McAdam Dorothy unwittingly confabulates the police powers of the states (health, welfare, safety & morals) with those limited and enumerated powers of the federal government. My argument is that the national government does not have the constitutional authority to provide disaster relief. Clearly, the states have that authority.

Jeff Noble Tyler, while I agree with you that the document was written by the hands and minds of privileged white men in the 18th Century, by design it is a flexible instrument. It is why, as Mr. McAdam points out above, recent interpretations are different from what may have been acceptable in the 1780s. That judicial review is not implicit in the Constitution left open the question of how to defend the Constitution. That was answered by the Court itself in 1803 in Marbury v. Madison. Since that day, the Constitution has been a breathing, living document able to be interpreted by the women and men serving on the Court in contemporary times, whenever those times may be. What is acceptable and Constitutional today may be overturned in 1, 5, or 30 years. The design works, albeit sometimes too slow and at other times too fast. The Republic has not lasted 237 years by clinging to an inoperable and unchangeable Constitution. It has survived by being changeable.

Dorothy Howard  Perhaps....but one could also argue that providing disaster releif is providing for the common defense.

Jeremy Tyler I'm never sure when I say that something is not constitutional, why it is that people resort to bringing up police and fireman, as if that has anything to do with the constitution other than it being something that the state handles. 

Democratic President Grover Cleveland vetoed a bill in 1887 that would have provided seed for farmers in drought-stricken Texas. In his veto message he stated: 

"I can find no warrant for such an appropriation in the Constitution, and I do not believe that the power and duty of the general government ought to be extended to the relief of individual suffering which is in no manner properly related to the public service or benefit. A prevalent tendency to disregard the limited mission of this power and duty should, I think, be steadfastly resisted, to the end that the lesson should be constantly enforced that, though the people support the government, the government should not support the people." 

He also said that aid from Washington only "encourages the expectation of paternal care on the part of the Government and weakens the sturdiness of our national character." He then offered money from himself personally to help the farmers.  

Jeff Noble . . . or the general welfare.

Dorothy Howard So shall we do away with the FBI, Secret Service, ATF, Border Patrol, etc?

Jeff Noble It can be safely assumed, based on their statements in this thread, that McAdam and Jeremy differ with the Court's 1803 decision in Marbury v. Madison.

Thomas A. McAdam Not everything we may want the government to provide for us is authorized by our constitution. We can alter it, of course (and have done so many times), but if we abandon it, we do so at our peril. The constitution not only insures our rights and freedom, but it protects us from a tyrannical and oppressive government. If we destroy its limitations, we also lose its protections. We are either a nation of laws, or a nation of men. Which would you prefer?

Jeff Noble That's from the Jaycee creed. I remember it. The answer is a hybrid. We are a nation of laws written and agreed to by men and women.

Will Cox So "Brownie" is criticizing the President for moving TOO quickly??? Really?? You can't make that stuff up ...

Thomas A. McAdam I respect Jeff's view of constitutional history, but I must warn against the "living and breathing" metaphor. The framers had recent experience with tyranny, and intended the constitution to be amendable, but otherwise immutable. In my lifetime, the courts have stretched the constitution to discover a "right of privacy" that allows a woman to kill her unborn child ("emanations from a penumbra"), and have allowed governments to seize private property for private (not public) use. Stretched to the point of breaking. As Thomas Moore said, in A Man For All Seasons: "And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down, and you're just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I'd give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!"

Jeremy Tyler If you look at many of the constitutional conventions when the constitution was going through to process to be ratified, many of the people that were skeptical were assured over and over again by the federalists that the necessary clause, interstate commerce clause, and general welfare clause was not to be broadly interpreted and were only to be applied by the specific powers that were enumerated to the Federal government. Even then the skeptics demanded the Bill of rights to be passed for further security. 

Jeff, yes you're right. I never cared much for John Marshall. 

Dorothy, some of those departments could be argued for defense. But I also think some of those cause more insecurity than security. I also could see a argument where those would not be allowed when following the constitution, especially considering some of the trouble some departments have caused.

Jeremy Tyler Jeff and Thomas on the comment about being governed by men. “If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.” James Madison, Federalist Paper 51.

Ken Stammerman We are a community, living under a living Constitution that means what the Supreme Court says it means, taking the broad principles written into it by the founders and reinterpreting them in a world the founders could never have imagined. With wise judges named to the bench, the Executive can both be empowered to innovate on matters unthought of centuries ago, and limited in its ability to intrude on citizens' rights in ways unimaginable in those days. The Legislature should have the wisdom to consent or reject justices who will respect personal freedoms while not tying the executive in a straitjacket of limitations on government action suitable to a nation of a landed aristocracy and yeomen farmers. The Constitution has been amended to remove provisions in the original, which saw a nation, for example, allowing human bondage and limiting suffrage by wealth and gender. As well, it expanded the power of the Executive to tax via the income tax. But in a fast-paced modern world, the ambiguities written into the Constitution by, for example, the 14th Amendment and the commerce clause, allow the flexibility for the Court to move faster than the amendment process would ever have allowed in outlawing Jim Crow or permitting the economic policies of the New Deal. And that is as it should be.

Thomas A. McAdam How fortunate Jeff is, to have so many clever and articulate friends. A seeker of wisdom and truth could ask for nothing more.

Thomas A. McAdam Actually, I find myself in agreement with Ken's summary of constitutional evolution. Must check my meds.

Jeff Noble True. I was just thinking the same thing as to our clever and articulate friends. And, importantly, the two Tyler's in this discussion, Jeremy Tyler and Tyler Hess, are young men, among the next generation of women and men to whom our collective futures are entrusted. We are fortunate for their concern and interest, irrespective of whether we agree with their positions. While I am throwing accolades at Tyler's and our future, I'd be remiss not to include another one, Tyler Montell.

Thomas A. McAdam I find a certain amount of comfort in Jeff's observation that the future of our republic, after all, just might be in good hands. My generation has not been so successful. Good luck, guys!

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Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Never married, liberal Democrat, born in 1960, opinionated but generally pleasant, member of the Episcopal Church. Graduate of Prestonia Elementary, Durrett High, and Spalding University; the first two now-closed Jefferson County Public Schools, the latter a very small liberal arts college in downtown Louisville affiliated with the Roman Catholic Sisters of Charity of Nazareth. My vocation and avocation is politics. My favorite pastime is driving the backroads of Kentucky and southern Indiana, visiting small towns, political hangouts, courthouses, churches, and cemeteries. You are welcome to ride with me sometime.