215. Predictions

Since Hallowe'en is a time of fun and games, I thought I'd play my own, a political one - that of predicting the governor's race. Ah, easy you say, Steve Beshear is going to win. That is a given - all the polls show him at least 15 points ahead, and yesterday and today two different polls showed him 20+ points ahead. That is an incredible margin.

So, to make it interesting, my predictions are broken down by county. We have 120 of them, the third most of any state in the Republic, Georgia exceeding us and Texas exceeding Georgia. I started this by responding to a post by Tim Havrilek, my blogging friend at the other end of the Democratic Party spectrum from me, as well as being at the southern end of the state. Here is the link to his blog's entry on the First Congressional District, a largely DINO district along the southern border of Kentucky. http://undergroundrooster.blogspot.com/2007/10/first-district-what-i-see-hear.html.

But, down in Tim's area, we (the Democrats) should do better than usual there given our standard-bearer is a native of the district, our Treausuer candidate Todd Hollenbach runs to the right of the Party on some issues, and Jack Conway went target shooting down in Ballard County back in August meaning his hunting license may be older than either Beshear's or the governor's. Steve Beshear and Jack Conway are campaigning in the First District as I am typing this.

So, without further ado, here goes the gaming, no pun intended. Well, wait. This isn't as hard as it seems which you'll see shortly. A lot of the counties are a given for one side or the other. After you throw those out, it gets a little tricky.

They are listed by county then by grade, or I mean name - a "B" for Beshear, an "F" for Fletcher. First the easy ones.

Adair - F; Allen - F; Ballard - B; Butler - F; Calloway - F; Casey - F; Clinton - F; Crittenden - F; Cumberland - F; Monroe - F; Muhlenberg - B; Russell - F; Breckinridge - F; Edmonson - F; Grayson - F; Green - F; Hardin - F; Shelby - F; Spencer - F; Taylor - F; Warren - F; Washington - F; Jefferson - B; Bath - B; Boone - F; Boyd - B; Bracken - R; Campbell - F; Elliott - B; Grant - F; Kenton - F; Lewis - F; Pendleton - F; Oldham - F; Clay - F; Floyd - B; Harlan - B; Jackson - F; Johnson - F; Knott - B; Knox - F; Laurel - F; Lawrence - F; Lee - F; Leslie - F; Letcher - B; McCreary - F; Martin - F; Owsley - F; Perry - B; Pike - B; Pulaski - F; Rockcastle - F; Wayne - F; Whitley- F; Estill - F; Franklin - B; Garrard - F; Jessamine - F; Lincoln - F; Mercer - F.

That's the first 61, or one more than half. The rest are pure speculation, like much else in politics. Run it up the flagpole and see who salutes.

Caldwell - F; Carlisle - B; Christian - B; Fulton - B; Graves - undecided; Henderson - B; Hickman - B; Hopkins - undecided, leans F; Livingston - B; Logan - from way out on a limb I am giving it to Beshear; Lyon - B; McCracken - more limb work - B; McLean - B; Marshall - B; Metcalfe - B, barely; Ohio - B, that's different; Simpson - undecided; Todd - B, just barely; Trigg - F; Union - B; Webster - B; Barren - F; Bullitt - B, for a change; Daviess - B; Hancock - F; Hart - F; Larue- F; Marion - B; Meade - B, just barely; Nelson - B; Carroll - B; Carter - B; Fleming - B; Gallatin - undecided; Greenup - B; Harrison - F; Henry - B; Mason - F, but, again why?; Nicholas - B; Owen - B, barely; Robertson - F; Trimble - B; Bell - B; Breathitt - B, hmmm; Magoffin - B; Menifee - B; Morgan - undecided; Rowan - B; Wolfe - B, by a hair; Anderson - F, but why?; Bourbon - B; Boyle - undecided; Clark - B; Fayette - B; Madison - B; Montgomery - B; Powell - B; Scott - B; Woodford - undecided.

Is there a pattern? Yes. Beshear is originally from the west and Mongiardo is from the east, and Louisville is their connecting point, a Democratic stronghold. Beshear's native western counties usually go Republican but he can mollify that to a point. Mongiardo carries the east, with the few traditional Democratic counties, as well as a few traditionally Republican counties in the Old 5th. And again, Louisville puts them over. It doesn't hurt that Beshear's present home is in the 6th, which is also Fletcher's.

We'll see what happens next Tuesday.

Happy Hallowe'en, again.