222. My Predictions Bad; Democratic Victories Good; Bleeding Kentucky Blue

We won.

Gosh, where to start?

I went to Frankfort last night - saw the victors - saw lots and lots and lots and lots of friends, old and new. Saw lots of old Young Democrats friends. We are all older, but we are all Democrats, and it was a damn good night to be a Democrat. I commented to one of my younger friends, Shawn Reilly, that this is the way it used to be all the time and I hope he would get to attend more and more of these victory celebrations.

And I thought of my grandmother more than once. She died in 1976. Prior to that, she was at every victory party after having been one of the most loyal of foot soldiers to the Kentucky Democratic Party. She would have had a ball last night in Frankfort, her home town.

I remarked to one friend that this was the first time in a long time I had seen some of the people there; he responded "they've been DINOs for a few years." The DINOs came home - and brought with them a more than a few disgrunted Republicans.

Last week I offered county-by-county predictions. I missed by a bunch. I'm glad I did. I did not fully comprehend the mood of so many Republicans. I'm glad I was wrong.

First, I had said that 61 counties always vote either Democrat or Republican. In that group, I predicted the governor would carry 48 counties. The governor only carried 28 counties anywhere in the state.

I said he would win Adair, Allen, Butler, Calloway, Casey, Clinton, Crittenden, Cumberlannd, Monroe, Russell, Breckinridge, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hardin, Shelby, Spencer, Taylor, Warren, Washington, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Pendleton, Oldham, Clay, Jackson, Johnson, Knox, Laurel, Lawrence, Lee, Leslie, McCreary, Martin, Owsley, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne, Whitley, Estill, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, and Mercer.

Of that group, Beshear carried Calloway, Crittenden, Breckinridge, Edmonson, Hardin, Shelby, Spencer, Warren (big), Washington, BRACKEN, CAMPBELL, GRANT, KENTON - (YES KENTON), PENDLETON, Johnson, Lawrence, Leslie, Martin, Owsley (by only 5 votes - maybe they are finally getting the message that Republicans don't give a damn about poor people), and Mercer. Beshear lost Wayne by four votes. I've bolded counties in the 2nd Congressional and italicised counties in the 4th. There are strong implications for a good Democratic candidate in these, especially the 2nd. The 5th CD shows promise for Greg Stumbo. I'm thinking Mitch McConnell's defeat next year would be helped by good candidates in each of these three CDs, coupled with Yarmuth and Chandler in the 3rd and 6th. Maybe I need to back off a day or too and let the euphoria settle.

Of the group of Democratic counties in which I predicted Beshear would be the winner, he won every one of them, including reliably Elliott County which gave him an 8-1 margin.

Then there are those counties where I attempted a judgment call. Here are the results.

Caldwell, wrong; Carlisle, correct; Christian, correct; Fulton, correct; Graves I called undecided, it went for Beshear 3-2; Henderson, correct; Hickman, correct; Hopkins I called undecided, it went for Beshear 7-4; Livingston, correct; Logan, correct; Lyon, correct; McCracken, correct; McLean, correct; Marshall, correct; Metcalfe, correct; Ohio, correct; Simpson I called undecided, it went 4-3 for Beshear; Todd, correct; Trigg, wrong; Union, correct; Webster, correct; Barren, wrong and thank you Steve Nunn for your help - we need you back in the legislature; Bullitt, correct; Daviess, correct (big); Hancock, wrong - went 2-1 for Beshear; Hart, wrong; Larue, wrong; Marion, correct; Meade, correct; Nelson, correct; Carroll, correct; Carter, correct; Fleming, correct; Gallatin I called undecided, Beshear carried it 2-1; Greenup, correct; Harrison, wrong; Henry, correct; Mason, wrong; Nicholas, correct; Owen, correct; Robertson, wrong - the vote in Kentucky's smallest and least populated county was 347 to 274 in Beshear's favor; Trimble, correct; Bell, correct; Breathitt, correct; Magoffin, correct; Menifee, correct - you know Menifee County is spelled wrong - should be Menefee; Morgan I called undecided - went 2-1 for Beshear; Rowan, correct; Wolfe, correct, although I said by a hair, and it was a 3-1 margin; Anderson, wrong, thankfully; Bourbon, correct; Boyle I called undecided - Beshear won 3770 to 3276; Clark, correct; Fayette, correct; Madison, correct; Montgomery, correct; Powell, correct; Scott, correct; and Woodford I also called undecided - Beshear won 4779 to 3233.

Again, based on some of my incorrect counties, the 2nd Congressional District is looking ripe for a takeover. Of the 113 counties I made a prediction in, I got 83 of them correct. That's 73.45%. I'll take that.

Yesterday, Kentucky let some Red Blood and Bled Blue.