645. I'm biased, but those numbers have a problem
In the November 2000 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 59.43% were Democrats and 32.87% were Republicans.
In the November 2002 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 59.58% were Democrats and 34.05% were Republicans.
In the November 2003 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 60.08% were Democrats and 34.25% were Republicans.
In the November 2004 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 58.45% were Democrats and 33.99% were Republicans.
In the November 2006 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 59.21% were Democrats and 34.14% were Republicans.
In the November 2007 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 60.64% were Democrats and 33.30% were Republicans.
In the November 2008 election in Jefferson County (which has twelve precincts more than the 3rd Congressional District), of those persons who cast a ballot, 60.51% were Democrats and 32.53% were Republicans.
Today, Survey USA released a poll in which they say that the electorate will be 50% Democratic and 40% Republican - 10% fewer Democrats than have, on average, voted in every election since 2000 and 7% more Republicans than have, on average, voted in every election since 2000. During all those elections we've elected a Republican president and governor as well as a Democratic president and governor. Still, the numbers don't change. My guess is they wont change much this year either.
For the Survey USA poll to be accurate, which on its face it isn't, they'd need to poll about 60% Democrats and 34% Republicans. That is who actually votes. They didn't poll those numbers. When they do, I'll pay closer attention.
As I said, as a consultant to the Yarmuth campaign, I am biased. And for the record, this is not a statement from the campaign; it is just me rambling on about numbers, something I do with regularity. Numbers are numbers and these, on their face, are wrong.
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Politics and Politicians
5 comments:
Yes, they are wrong. I knew they were the moment I saw them; but, I didn't take the time to look at the back data. Thank you for doing that.
I will shamelessly re-post your data with link back to you. You are the Numbers God, as we all know. Plus, a good guy and a good Dem (not always the same thing).
B.
Are they adjusting for the well publicized enthusiasm gap? I don't think the numbers would be like 2008, which was an unusually large Democratic turnout, but 2000 is plausible....but for the enthusiasm gap.
The "enthusiasm gap" is a meme being pushed by the right wing and Fox News. When all is said and done, and voters look at the landscape, they will forget petty things and get their arses out to vote.
Jeff-I hope you're billing the Yarmuth campaign fair market rate for your actuary services. He can afford it and you deserve it.
Sounds like two definitions of "electorate": those who can vote versus those who do.
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