337. Kentucky's Presidential Primary - A Look Back

Ok, one quick entry.

Back on May 14 - an eternity ago in this political season - I made some presidential predictions for Kentucky over on Jacob Payne's pageonekentucky.com.

A friend of mine emailed me today and suggested I look at my predictions to see how I did with those pageonekentucky.com predictions. As those of you who were at Ken's party Tuesday night know, I predicted Ken would win by 54 votes, but he lost by 112. So my numbers are a little iffy for the moment. So, here goes.

In the First Congressional District, I wrote --
"Clinton 61, Obama 27. Obama scores some few numbers in McCracken, Hopkins, Christian, and Calloway, but nothing to impress. John Edwards picks up a few votes here."

What really happened was Clinton 71, Obama 23. I was off by 14 points, 10 in Clinton's favor and 4 to Obama's detriment. Obama got 30.14% in McCracken, 22.74% in Hopkins, 37.21% in Christian, and 25.98% in Calloway. McCracken and Calloway beat the statewide average of 30%. So, I don't really know much about the 1st District.

In the Second Congressional District, I wrote --
"2nd CD — Clinton 57, Obama 29. Obama has pockets of support in Meade, Warren, and Daviess, and maybe Hardin. “Uncommitted” runs up a few votes in the 2nd, maybe into double digits."

What really happened was Clinton 69, Obama 26. My predictions were off by 15 points. That's a little better than I did in the 1st, but not much. "Uncommitted" outpolled John Edwards here by about 1000 votes, just as in the 1st. In Meade, Obama got 24%; in Warren, 32.72%; in Daviess, 29.43%; and in Hardin, 35.40%.

In the Third Congressional District, where I am supposed to know what I am doing I wrote --
"3rd CD — Obama 55, Clinton 42. Obama carries the 3rd with large support as expected in African-American precincts, as well some unexpected parts out 3rd Street, Preston Highway, and Shelbyville Road."

What really happened was Obama 53.2, Clinton 44.1. I was off by about 4 points. I feel pretty good about my 3rd Congressional District predictions. I haven't yet pored through the precincts yet to know whether my further suggestions were true or not, but I will and I will report back.

In the Fourth Congressional District, I wrote --
"4th CD — Clinton 53, Obama 42. Obama garners support all through the 4th, with similar but losing percentages in each county, but none in large enough numbers to overcome Clinton."

What really happened was overwhelming to say the least. Clinton won with 71.21%, Obama got 24.35%. My target was 36 points off. My views of the upper Ohio River counties were way off. Obama did well, meaning he didn't lose that bad in Oldham, Campbell, Kenton, and that part of Scott in the 4th CD. Otherwise, he was thumped.

In the Fifth Congressional District I wrote --
"5th CD — I expect the 5th CD to be a surprise in this contest. My brain says that the 5th CD should vote in numbers similar to West Virginia where Clinton won 67 to 25, but my gut says Obama does better than expected, but still loses. Clinton 55, Obama 42."

What really happened was that I must have been deep into either the bottle or the herb when I wrote that. Clinton 87.68%, Obama 8.80%. That's a 65 point error on my part. I'll be honest. I went back and checked my math because I was astonished. This was West Virginia except on steroids. This was a step back into the Old South and the Old Dominion. Carry Me Back to Old Virginny! But, that is why we have elections. People have the right to vote and vote for the candidate of their choice. It is a far, far better thing to have voters who vote their minds and in ways with which you disagree, than to have voters who are told they can only vote for the official party sanctioned candidate - things we read about in other countries.

In the Sixth Congressional District, I wrote --
"6th CD — Clinton 52, Obama 41. Lexington and Frankfort run up some numbers for Obama but not nearly enough, but still more that anticipated. “Uncommitted” does well here too, but not into double digits."

What really happened was Clinton 60, Obama 34. I was off by 15 points. Obama carried Fayette with 51.42%. He got 30% in Franklin County. In Congressman Ben Chandler's home county of Woodford, Obama scored a favorable 37.19%.

Over for the Commonwealth, I wrote --
"Kentucky as a whole goes for Clinton by less than expected but still a large comfortable win - Clinton 56, Obama 36."

The actual number was 65 to 30. Again, I was wrong to the tune of 15 points.

So, if there are any statewide campaigns out there looking for a prognosticator, above is my latest resume. It isn't pretty unless you are only looking to win in the Third Congressional District.

*****

As I stated in the last two postings, I will be out for a few days, maybe more. I've noticed some comments on my previous entry but I have been advised not to comment on the matter as there are investigations underway. I still plan to seek reelection to the Kentucky Democratic Party State Central Executive Committee at the Convention on June 7. Stay tuned.