784. Marginally speaking, let's do the numbers.

Let me say at the outset that I expect Alison Grimes to narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell in tomorrow's election for the United States Senate.  It would be an upset of massive proportions defeating the Minority Leader who may by the end of this year's balloting be the Majority Leader.

The win will come as a matter of holding our own in the north, south, and east; running up some numbers in the center; and doing marginally better while still losing west of I-65.  I watched the ground game come together in the last few weeks and it is impressive.  Whoever is in charge, and there has been some question as to who it is, they've done a marvelous job.

I've had no role other than as a supporter and tomorrow as a voter.  For the moment, assuming the win I am assuming, I will give the credit to Jonathan Hurst, Dale Emmons, Jerry Lundergan, and most importantly the candidate, Alison Grimes.

A note to Mr. David Patterson of Harrodsburg, the Libertarian candidate in this race - as a Third-Party or Independent candidate, the bar is set much higher for him or anyone to have their name placed on the ballot.  Many in my party would disagree with me but I think the playing field - effectively ballot access - should be the same for everyone.  While Secretary Grimes and Senator McConnell's filing papers required two signatures, Mr. Patterson's required 5000.  One of those verified 5000 signatures was mine.  

Here we go - a county-by-county - Alison winners in BOLD -  listing of the margin of victory or (loss) which will yield a razor-thin win of 4,400 votes for Alison Grimes. These are not vote totals but rather the difference between the two candidates, irrespective of the vote received by the Libertarian candidate, Mr. Patterson.  And importantly note for this to happen, it will require an additional margin of 44372 votes from Fayette and Jefferson together.

Do your part.

ADAIR - (2100)
ALLEN - (2100)
ANDERSON - (600)
BALLARD - (100)
BARREN - (2100)
BATH - 700
BELL - (1400)
BOONE (17000)
BOURBON - 200
BOYD - 200
BOYLE - (1100)
BRACKEN - 100
BREATHITT - even
BRECKINRIDGE - (300)
BULLITT - (4000)
BUTLER - (1600)
CALDWELL - even
CALLOWAY - (1800)
CAMPBELL - (6100)
CARLISLE - even
CARROLL - 400
CARTER - 900
CASEY - (2100)
CHRISTIAN - (2500)
CLARK - (1400)
CLAY - (2500)
CLINTON - (1900)
CRITTENDEN - (600)
CUMBERLAND - (1200)
DAVIESS - (1600)
EDMONSON - (800)
ELLIOTT - 500
ESTILL (600)
FAYETTE - 5600 - Note - 4322 more votes than Conway got over Paul, not an easy task.
FLEMING - 400
FLOYD - 2300
FRANKLIN - 4000
FULTON - even
GALLATIN - (100)
GARRARD - (1700)
GRANT - (1700)
GRAVES - (1500)
GRAYSON - (2400)
GREEN - (1000)
GREENUP - 100
HANCOCK - 500
HARDIN - (3800)
HARLAN - (1300)
HARRISON - (300)
HART - (500)
HENDERSON - 500
HENRY - (200)
HICKMAN - even
HOPKINS - (2700)
JACKSON - (1200)
JEFFERSON - 69000 - Note - 40050 more votes than Conway got over Paul, not an easy task.
JESSAMINE - (3300)
JOHNSON - (2300)
KENTON - (13500)
KNOTT - 500
KNOX - (2500)
LARUE - (800)
LAUREL - (7100)
LAWRENCE - even
LEE - (400)
LESLIE - (2500)
LETCHER - (300)
LEWIS - (1600)
LINCOLN - (600)
LIVINGSTON - (200)
LOGAN - (1800)
LYON - even
MADISON - (2500)
MAGOFFIN - 700
MARION - 900
MARSHALL - (1100)
MARTIN - (1200)
MASON - 300
MCCRACKEN - (4400)
MCCREARY - (2100)
MCLEAN - even
MEADE - (400)
MENIFEE - 900
MONROE - (2600)
MORGAN - 700
MUHLENBERG - 1000
NELSON - (900)
NICHOLAS - 400
OHIO - (200)
OLDHAM - (7600)
OWEN - (300)
OWSLEY - (500)
PENDLETON - (800)
PERRY - (700)
PIKE - 200
POWELL - 600 
PULASKI - (8400)
ROBERTSON - even
ROCKCKASTLE - (1600)
ROWAN - 1200
RUSSELL - (2600)
SCOTT - (1700)
SHELBY - (2700)
SIMPSON - (800)
SPENCER - (1500)
TAYLOR - (1000)
TODD - (700)
TRIGG - (1000)
TRIMBLE - even
UNION -200
WARREN - (6700)
WASHINGTON - (400)
WAYNE - (1000)
WEBSTER - even
WHITLEY - (3700)
WOLFE - 600
WOODFORD - (100)