785. As to my predictions - the promised report.

Last week, prior to the Election, I made a bold set of predictions for the Alison Grimes - Mitch McConnell race for the United States Senate.  At Entry #784, posted at 9:07 the night before the election, I predicted Mitch McConnell would receive 4,400 votes fewer than Alison.  Although the number does not appear in the post, my notes indicate that my prediction was for McConnell to poll 788129 votes to Alison's 792529. Despite my wishful thinking we all know that 4,400 margin of victory didn't happen and it didn't happen in a big way.  

In my defense (and this entire entry is "in my defense") McConnell's numbers were, relatively speaking" close to my prediction.  He outperformed my expectations by 2.36%.  That's pretty close.  I like it that I predicted the number I did for McConnell.  What does it tell us?  Mostly that his voters were very traditional, very reliable, and rather unmovable.  I have often described my style of "doing numbers" with the phrase "birds of a feather vote together." In Mitch's case, that is exactly what happened.  He did not receive an outpouring of new voters, people upset with Obama or Alison or Steve Beshear or anyone else.  He got 2.36% better than he should have gotten by my numbers.  That's no big deal.

Here's the big deal.  My prediction for Alison was 792,529 votes.  She polled 584,698, a deficit of 207,831, or only 73.77% of my predicted number for her.  Again we must ask, as everyone has been asking, why? Most people are blaming her loss on the president and his intense unpopularity in the Commonwealth. That can't be denied.  But there is more to it than that.

I'll be the first to admit (now that it is over) my predictions for her, unlike those for McConnell, were loaded in her favor.  I really wanted her to win.  She is a friends and her parents are dear friends who have been supportive of me in many ways.  My predictions numbers included some "seeded clouds" intended to make supporters recognize that a GOTV effort on Election Day was paramount in obtaining a victory, and pointing out as I did in the original post the importance and difficulty of getting those voters out especially in the two most populous counties, Fayette and Jefferson.  She didn't in either and the national networks called the race as soon as they could as that last poll closed in the Central Time Zone.  Alison had to do in Fayette and Jefferson what had never been done before and didn't.  My predictions in those two counties were, quite honestly, extraordinarily wishful thinking.  More than a few people through the night seemed to know that.

Sticking to traditional conservative values did not help where it might have - in the east and the west. Sticking to those same values or avoiding others, especially with regard to the president didn't help in Louisville and Lexington.  Would it have made a difference or do most people who always vote Republican continue to do so and do most people who always vote Democratic continue to do so?  Again, birds of a feather.  

In summary, Alison failed to move more than a few Republican-voting Democrats over to her column.  She also failed, in a large way, to give Fayette and Jefferson's non-traditional voters - those who only vote in presidential years - a reason to come out in her favor.  That was a needle we had to move and didn't. Doing those two things might have made the difference.  

But, back to those abysmal predictions of mine.  Other than my McConnell number which was marginally correct, my best predictions came in adjoining counties, Simpson where I missed the mark by 51 votes, and Warren where it was 89.  Grayson was the next closest at 95. Others close enough to brag about were Cumberland and Marion - each at 101, Nelson at 120, McCreary at 133, Robertson at 145 - and honestly I shouldn't include Robertson as it is hard to be off by 145 as opposed to easy, Monroe at 149, and Butler at 188.

Arguably my best prediction came from Fayette given its size where I was off 659 votes.  My worst, of course, was Jefferson at 33025.  I suppose that should be embarrassing.  The entire list is below.

Takeaway? Simple - running on traditional Republican values didn't move anyone and may have alienated some.  Let's see how those considering a 2015 statewide run respond to that. 


Below are my original predictions with the actuals to the right of those and occasional notes.

ADAIR - (2100) - (777)
ALLEN - (2100) - (435)
ANDERSON - (600) - (1406)
BALLARD - (100) - (926)
BARREN - (2100) - (1077)
BATH - 700 - (587)
BELL - (1400) - (2151)
BOONE (17000) - 3588 - Boone's deficit was 3588 lower than my prediction.
BOURBON - 200 (387)
BOYD - 200 - (233)
BOYLE - (1100) - (445)
BRACKEN - 100 - (577)
BREATHITT - even - (368)
BRECKINRIDGE - (300) - (990)
BULLITT - (4000) - (1870)
BUTLER - (1600) - (188)
CALDWELL - even - (1346)
CALLOWAY - (1800) - (787)
CAMPBELL - (6100) - (536)
CARLISLE - even - (609)
CARROLL - 400 - (366) - Carroll's win was 366 lower than my prediction.
CARTER - 900 - (169) - Carter's win was 169 lower than my prediction.
CASEY - (2100) - (425)
CHRISTIAN - (2500) - (1301)
CLARK - (1400) - (849)
CLAY - (2500) - (772)
CLINTON - (1900) - (418)
CRITTENDEN - (600) - (730)
CUMBERLAND - (1200) - (101)
DAVIESS - (1600) - (3195)
EDMONSON - (800) - (561)
ELLIOTT - 500 - (245) - Elliott's win was 245 lower than my prediction.
ESTILL (600) - (693)
FAYETTE - 5600 - Note - 4322 more votes than Conway got over Paul, not an easy task. - (659)
FLEMING - 400 - (1343)
FLOYD - 2300 - (3480)
FRANKLIN - 4000 - (1795) - Franklin's win was 1795 lower than my prediction.
FULTON - even - (283)
GALLATIN - (100) - (402)
GARRARD - (1700) - (502)
GRANT - (1700) - (488)
GRAVES - (1500) - (2506)
GRAYSON - (2400) - (95)
GREEN - (1000) - (744)
GREENUP - 100 - (799)
HANCOCK - 500 - (675)
HARDIN - (3800) - (1776)
HARLAN - (1300) - (2952)
HARRISON - (300) - (685)
HART - (500) - (548)
HENDERSON - 500 - (1140)
HENRY - (200) - (699)
HICKMAN - even - (449)
HOPKINS - (2700) - (2618)
JACKSON - (1200) - (1499)
JEFFERSON - 69000 - Note - 40050 more votes than Conway got over Paul, not an easy task. - A note here - Alison beat McConnell by 35975 votes.  I had hoped/prayed/predicted against all logic that she would win by 69000, a difference of 33025.  I noted in the prediction that she needed a 40050 vote bigger win than Jack got over Randy.  Jack got fewer votes than Alison as Rand got fewer than Mitch.  Jack's margin was 28950.  Alison got 7025 more votes than Jack.  I really need to break Jefferson down by legislative district.  (33025) - Jefferson's win was 33025 fewer than my prediction.
JESSAMINE - (3300) - (1955)
JOHNSON - (2300) - (1156)
KENTON - (13500) - 1864 - Kenton's deficit was 1864 fewer than my prediction.
KNOTT - 500 - (1417)
KNOX - (2500) - (1526)
LARUE - (800) - (558)
LAUREL - (7100) - (1516)
LAWRENCE - even - (1286)
LEE - (400) - (530)
LESLIE - (2500) - (329)
LETCHER - (300) - (1992)
LEWIS - (1600) - 168.  Lewis's deficit was 168 less than my prediction.
LINCOLN - (600) - (1375)
LIVINGSTON - (200) - (785)
LOGAN - (1800) - (213)
LYON - even - (671)
MADISON - (2500) - (2565)
MAGOFFIN - 700 - (1839)
MARION - 900 - 101 - Marion's win was 101 fewer than my prediction.
MARSHALL - (1100) - (1809)
MARTIN - (1200) - (952)
MASON - 300 - (1387)
MCCRACKEN - (4400) - (2381)
MCCREARY - (2100) - (133)
MCLEAN - even - (760)
MEADE - (400) - (930)
MENIFEE - 900 - (792) - Menifee's win was 792 fewer than my prediction.
MONROE - (2600) - 149. Monroe's deficit was 149 fewer than my prediction.
MORGAN - 700 - (1113)
MUHLENBERG - 1000 - (1943)
NELSON - (900) - (120) - Nelson's defeat was 120 fewer than my prediction.
NICHOLAS - 400 - (258) - Nicholas's win was 258 fewer than my prediction.
OHIO - (200) - (2024)
OLDHAM - (7600) - (297) - Oldham's defeat was 297 fewer than my prediction.
OWEN - (300) - (812)
OWSLEY - (500) - (384)
PENDLETON - (800) - (611)
PERRY - (700) - (2381)
PIKE - 200 - (5509)
POWELL - 600 - (734) 
PULASKI - (8400) - (1947)
ROBERTSON - even - (145)
ROCKCKASTLE - (1600) - (1081)
ROWAN - 1200 - (986) - Rowan's win was 986 fewer than my prediction.
RUSSELL - (2600) - (494)
SCOTT - (1700) - (934)
SHELBY - (2700) - (995)
SIMPSON - (800) - (51)
SPENCER - (1500) - (821)
TAYLOR - (1000) - (1848)
TODD - (700) - (488)
TRIGG - (1000) - (563)
TRIMBLE - even - (396)
UNION -200 - (1547)
WARREN - (6700) - (89)
WASHINGTON - (400) - (480)
WAYNE - (1000) - (889)
WEBSTER - even - (1342)
WHITLEY - (3700) - (694)
WOLFE - 600 - (554) - Wolfe's win by 554 fewer than my prediction.
WOODFORD - (100) - (1003)