412. One more election entry. Turnout a problem.

As I did two years ago, I participated in a very active way in the election of John Yarmuth, only this time it was his reelection. And he was, in fact, reelected, by a count of 203771 to 139489, defeating his latest opponent, the same woman he defeated the first time, former State Representative and Congresswoman Anne Meagher Northup.

Two years ago, I predicted John's total vote count to within 600 votes. If I hadn't been caught up in a frenzy, I would have done so again this year. On Saturday, October 25, at 4:41 pm, in response to a text I had received from Dan Geldon who was the campaign manager asking if I still felt we were going to win, I responded back with a text-message which read "203000+." Had I stuck to my intuition and not to my emotions, I would have called the election within 771 votes, not far removed from my 2006 forecast. But, I didn't.

In an email I sent to a number of people both in the campaign and out of it, I made a prediction. The text of that email reads,

"220913. I said 200000 back in February. This number sort of scares me - in a good way. I'm predicting an overall turnout in Jefferson County (including the twelve precincts in the 2nd) of 379281, which is 75.929%."

My problem was the turnout. I predicted almost 76% turnout. The turnout in the congressional race was 343260 voters, or 70.3%, considerably lower than my prediction. For the record, John got 59.4% of the vote that actually turned out. Had I predicted a proper turnout of 70.3%, that would have given John a vote count of 203896, which would have been just 125 votes off. But, I didn't.

So, next year - and that means 2010, I'll try again. I seem to have the congressman's percentage of vote well figured. I just need to work on the turnout.