Wednesday, November 9, 2011

707. Beshear Wins! Ok, I got that one right; let's look at the rest

In the previous entry I made several predictions as they pertain to yesterday's near-sweep by the Democratic Party of Kentucky's statewide offices. Let's see how I did. I will list the predictions followed by what actually happened. A quick look-see shows that I did not do well. Here we go.

I predicted the Democrats will win all races.
The Democrats won four out of five, losing the race for Agriculture Commissioner.

I predicted statewide turnout prediction of 28.2%.
The actual turnout was 28.63% statewide.

I predicted eighteen counties would have a greater turnout percentage than the state average which was 28.63. Below is my list, followed by their turnout. My winners are in bold; my losers in italics. I didn't do so good.
Anderson, 38.32; Bath, 22.54; Boone, 21.79; Butler, 25.11; Campbell, 25.76; Daviess, 30.09; Fayette, 32.74; Floyd, 22.84; Franklin, 51.17; Henderson, 26.28; Jefferson, 32.13; Kenton, 24.01; Meade, 29.89; Nicholas, 27.34; Ohio, 26.13; Oldham, 33.94; Scott, 32.21; Woodford, 40.33.

One of the several factors I use in determing "numbers" is a precinct, or in this case a county, which outperform the overall area in turnout. There are always the usual suspects - Anderson, Fayette, Franklin, Jefferson, Scott, Woodford, and a few others.

Here is the actual list of those counties which outperformed the statewide average of 28.63%, listed from a high in Franklin of 51.17%. I had said there would be 18; there were actually 53.

Franklin, 51.17; Elliott, 43.62; Woodford, 40.33; Cumberland, 40.09; Lyon, 39.33; Shelby, 38.57; Anderson, 38.32; Henry, 36.85; Caldwell, 36.13; Carlisle, 36.11; Monroe, 36.11; Ballard, 36.02; Marshall, 35.71; Taylor, 34.29; Powell, 34.13; Russell, 34.03; Oldham, 33.95; Hickman, 33.71; Spencer, 33.52; Graves, 33.51; Owen, 330.05; Crittenden, 32.94; Boyle, 32.74; Fayette, 32.74; Livingston, 32.55; Marion, 32.49; Scott, 32.21; Jefferson, 32.13; Harrison, 31.72; Bourbon, 31.43; McLean, 31.28; Jessamine, 31.02; Larue, 30.88; Clark, 30.71; Fleming, 30.71; Hancock, 30.41; Adair, 30.31; Nelson, 30.29; Clinton, 30.22; Daviess, 30.09; Metcalfe, 30.05; Green, 30.00; Webster, 29.94; Meade, 29.89; Washington, 29.70; Trigg, 29.62; Rowan, 29.54; McCracken, 29.52; Breckinridge, 29.45; Madison, 29.14; Hopkins, 29.09. If you ever want to know why candidates go some places and not others, the above numbers demonstate the reasons - turnout.

The bottom five in percentage of turnout were Lewis, 18.67; Bell, 18.64; McCreary, 18.45; Gallatin, 18.42, and the worst was in Christian with 17.80. In trying to find an excuse for Christian, one may argue that because it is home to one of Kentucky's two military bases, Ft. Campbell, that there may be a lot of disinterested voters on the rolls. But the other base, Ft. Knox, has residents in Hardin, Meade, and Bullitt, all of which posted turnout percentages in the high 20s.

While we are on the subject of turnout, I want to briefly relate a discussion I had very early Tuesday morning with my very dear friend Preston Bates. Preston and I are in philosophical agreement very little these days as far as partisan politics go. One of the points he made was the system is obviously broke if only 30% of the eligible voters are voting. He was calling on people to skip voting altogther to demonstrate the frailty, or failure, of the system. He made quite a few other points in the discussion but this one matters. Late in the night last night, I rehashed this idea of the 30% and the failed system with another friend, Charlotte Lundergan, and her mother, Mrs. Case. Mrs. Case, famous of late due to a political ad, is one of the two grandmothers of newly elected Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. We had some interesting comments with respect to Preston's idea. He doesn't know it yet, but I am going to ask him to pen an op-ed piece for entry here on the blog. I hope he will take me up on the offer.

But, back to my predictions, bad as they were.

I predicted the governor and his running mate, His Honor the Former Mayor of Louisville-Jefferson County Metro, would prevail by a margin of 56.5 to 30 for Williams to 12.5 for Galbraith to 1 for all others.
The actual poll was Beshear, 55.72; Williams, 35.29; Galbraith, 8.99. Since no one filed to have Write-Ins counted, there is no number listed for them on the Secretary of State's website.

I predicted my friend Todd Hollenbach would win the Treasurer's race 55-42-3. Todd struggled to get out of the high-40s. His final tally was 48.77-46.61-4.62. The 4.62 went to Libertarian candidate Ken Moellman. his 4.62 probably caused the defeat of Todd's Republican opponent K. C. Crosbie, a Lexington council member. Mr. Moellman gets the "Bobbie Holsclaw" award as her candidacy in the Republican Primary for governor is the probable reason Steve Beshear's opponent was David Williams and not Tea Party Republican Phil Moffett.

Alison Lundergan Grimes, about whom I wrote at the beginning of her candidacy, was the leading votegetter for all the Democrats receiving 494368 votes, 30000+ better than the governor. Just as I did in the Primary, I ended my Election Night at her party in Lexington, and at an after-party at her parents' home. My prediction for her race was 54-46. She won 60.63-39.37. I was wrong again.

Jack Conway said in his victory speech that "reports of my demise were awfully premature." I've supported Jack in every race he has ran and will very, very likely continue to do so. But I was, admittedly, one of those people not necessarily predicting but deeply concerned about his poltical demise yesterday. One of my last texts as I was en route to Frankfort yesterday afternoon was to fellow political consultant Jonathan Hurst, wherein I expressed my concern for both Jack's race as well as Bob Farmer's, or as the text said "Ag or AG." I was, thankfully, wrong. I predicted Jack would win 53-47. He won 55.02-44.98.

I spent most of the afternoon and evening in the "war room" of the Democratic candidate for State Auditor Adam Edelen, whom I've known for almost two decades. Adam's campaign manager, Will Carle, made the request and I was happy to volunteer my time counting Adam's votes. My prediction for Adam was 55-45. I was off 3/4 of a point either way, to Adam's favor. He won 55.76-44.24. I'll claim a win here, the only one of the night.

My final prediction was in the Agriculture Commissioner's race where I had Bob Farmer winning a tight race 52-48. The race wasn't tight at all. There wont be a second non-farming Farmer in the Farmer's office. That race was won, handily, by James "Jamie" Comer, a 39 year old Republican legislator from Tompkinsville. We will be hearing Comer's name for many years to come in all likelihood. He beat Farmer 63.70-36.21, garnering 519183 votes, more than anyone on the ballot, something I specifically said would not happen - double loss. Farmer carried eight counties in the "old 7th" and Muhlenberg in the west, losing the other 111 counties.

All in all, other than the governor's race, the only one I really got close on was Adam Edelen's. I'll take that. In Kentucky, with the every-fourth year exception, there is always another election six months down the road.

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The Archives at Milepost 606


Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Never married, liberal Democrat, born in 1960, opinionated but generally pleasant, member of the Episcopal Church. Graduate of Prestonia Elementary, Durrett High, and Spalding University; the first two now-closed Jefferson County Public Schools, the latter a very small liberal arts college in downtown Louisville affiliated with the Roman Catholic Sisters of Charity of Nazareth. My vocation and avocation is politics. My favorite pastime is driving the backroads of Kentucky and southern Indiana, visiting small towns, political hangouts, courthouses, churches, and cemeteries. You are welcome to ride with me sometime.