Monday, May 17, 2010

622. Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow; and a set of predictions just for fun

Kentucky's longest political season in recent memory will come to an end tomorrow night at 7:00 PM after the polls close in the Central Time Zone. Garnering national attention for Kentucky are the two Parties' races for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jim Bunning. One might argue that the seat was mentally vacated years ago; Bunning hasn't been much in the way of a thousands points of light or any other scale. By any measurement, he has been fairly useless to the good citizens of the Commonwealth.

On the Dark Side of the Aisle, Secretary of State C. M. "Trey" Grayson is expected to lose to newcomer Rand Paul, a doctor of some sort from Bowling Greeen who has courted the so-called tea-party voters. Some are calling the Republican Primary a referendum of sorts on Addison Mitchell McConnell, Jr., the man who built the Kentucky Republican Party from scratch in the mid-1980s into a powerhouse full of young wolves, wolves apparently willing to turn now on their creator. It is a great story line.

Running as Democrats are two statewide office holders, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo of Hazard, who ran as part of Governor Steve Beshear's slate in 2007 and Attorney General Jack Conway, a Louisvillian who ran for Congress in 2002. As I did in 2002, I am supporting Conway for a number of reasons. One big one is his age. I believe he is 39 or 40. His chief opponent is 49, to be 50 on the 4th of July. I'll support either of them this fall, but I believe it would be better for Kentucky in the long haul - meaning fifteen, twenty, and twenty-five years from now - to elect the younger of the two, so as to create some senior status for a Kentucky senator. The United States Senate pays close attention to seniority; were it not for Mitch McConnell's long-term service, Kentucky would barely show up on the US Senate radar. Other than some campaign finance law, McConnell does a poor job of representing my values in DC. But he does bring highly needed dollars back to the state. We need to elect someone who can build a level of seniority as Mitch has. In that case, Jack has a ten-year advantage over Mongiardo. I'm also supporting Conway for a number of other reasons, and at least one of them has nothing to do with him, but rather is tied closely to his opponent and a certain piece of legislation he sponsored and supported in 2004.

Jack's race hasn't been ran as nicely as I would have liked. However, under the recent guidance of Jonathan Drobis, he has made up considerable ground and is now closing in on a win. I am hopeful he does win and for him to do so will require quite an effort tomorrow, especially here along the Left Bank of the Ohio River near Milepost 606.

Another race I am following should be an easy one, that of my former boss, Jefferson County Attorney Mike O'Connell. Mike is a wonderful guy, someone I've known for nearly thirty years. He was appointed to the post mid-term to serve out Irv Maze's time, after Irv moved over to the Circuit Bench. Mike shouldn't have much trouble, but one should never take a race for granted, and he hasn't.

Finally, the race I am closely involved with, in a professional way, is that of Greg Fischer, candidate for Mayor, for whom I have worked as a strategist and researcher. According to all the polls, including those of his opponents, Greg is set to win tomorrow's Primary. I think the polls are right, but I also think they may have Greg's lead slightly overstated and his opponents' support slightly understated. The latest poll showed Greg with 42%, leading his second-place opponent by a 2-1 margin, and the third-place guy by more than a 3-1 margin.

What follows are my predictions - just for fun - on who will run 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in each of Louisville-Jefferson County Metro's 26 council districts. This is kind of like picking the 1st and 2nd round in the NCAA tournament. It is mostly just a big guess. But, like March Madness, it is fun. So, here goes. Wait - one final thought in case you don't want to read through all of this. Here are my final percentages for tomorrow's balloting, hoping of course that the polls are right and I am wrong: Fischer - 36; King - 24; Tandy - 18; Allen - 13; all others 9. Now for the breakdowns, again by Council District.

1st MCD - Tandy, King, Marshall
2nd MCD - King, Tandy, Fischer
3rd MCD - Tandy, Fischer, King
4th MCD - Tandy, Fischer, Allen
5th MCD - Tandy, King, Marshall
6th MCD - Fischer, Tandy, Allen
7th MCD - Fischer, Tandy, Allen
8th MCD - Fischer, Allen, Tandy
9th MCD - Fischer, Allen, King
10th MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
11th MCD - Fischer, Tandy, King
12th MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
13th MCD - Fischer, King, Tandy
14th MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
15th MCD - King, Tandy, Fischer
16th MCD - Fischer, Tandy, King
17th MCD - Fischer, King, Tandy
18th MCD - Fischer, King, Tandy
19th MCD - Fischer, King, Tandy
20th MCD - Fischer, King, Tandy
21st MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
22nd MCD - Fischer, Tandy, King
23rd MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
24th MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
25th MCD - King, Fischer, Tandy
26th MCD - Fischer, Tandy, King

We'll see.

The polls are open from 6am to 6pm. Vote early; Vote often.

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The Archives at Milepost 606


Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Never married, liberal Democrat, born in 1960, opinionated but generally pleasant, member of the Episcopal Church. Graduate of Prestonia Elementary, Durrett High, and Spalding University; the first two now-closed Jefferson County Public Schools, the latter a very small liberal arts college in downtown Louisville affiliated with the Roman Catholic Sisters of Charity of Nazareth. My vocation and avocation is politics. My favorite pastime is driving the backroads of Kentucky and southern Indiana, visiting small towns, political hangouts, courthouses, churches, and cemeteries. You are welcome to ride with me sometime.