Saturday, November 10, 2012

755. I was wrong - he did much better

The presidential race has finally officially ended with the posting of Florida's Electoral College votes under the Obama column, an apparent win of 55,000 votes.  This brings the president's tally to 332 to 206.  A landslide, although not of the proportion of his first win against Senator John McCain.  Those numbers were 365-173.  In 2008, then-Senator Obama garnered 69,297,997 votes to McCain's 59,597,52.  Those numbers are higher than the turnout this year which presently show the president with 61,715,465 to Governor Romney's 58,507, 338.  By either tally - the popular vote or the Electoral College, the one that counts, the 44th President of the United States has been re-elected.  Thanks Be To God.

Now, to be honest, that 332-206 tally is well above my prediction - or predictions.  One prediction had the president winning on the slimmest of margins - 270 to 268.  Then I went out on a limb and made it 271-267.  Wow was I wrong.  But, that's ok.  I erred on the side that Governor Romney did - that he would win the Independents - and he did.  What neither of us foresaw was the return to the polls of women and minorities for the president, and in particular Latinos, who wander in and out of both parties and political ideologies like the revolving door of a Wal-Mart.  Latinos voted for the president's re-election by 71%.  My guess is the Republican Party's hardlines on immigration have much to do with the swing in this body of voters.  Women voters were all over the board in the pre-election polling.  Prominent faux-pas by Republican candidates for the United States Senate helped many candidates up and down the tickets.  Women as a group had a great day with 10 new women, 9 Democrats and 1 Republican, joining the most exclusive club on earth.  When the polls closed, the president had also fared well with this decisive group of voters, receiving 55% of their ballots.

Young voters did not vote for the president in the numbers they did in 2008, but he still won the under-30 crowd, and especially in the swing states, where he improved his margins with the youth vote, of which he received 69%.

In the end, it was the swing states which won for the president.  This time they swung left with one exception, North Carolina.

My guess is the 2016 race will be much easier for the Democrats.  By that time both North Carolina and Texas will have become considerably "bluer" in political complexion.  Winning the Electoral College gets much easier if you can allocate early on the 38 votes from the Lone Star State or the 15 from North Carolina.

One more note - Kentucky.  Kentucky got redder.  In 2008 John McCain won Kentucky with 57.4% to Obama's 41.2.  Romney improved on that number getting 61% to the president's 38%.  In  some counties, the results defy reason.  Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky led the state percentage-wise for Governor Romney with  90% of the vote, 4439 to 433 - wow!  Other counties with high percentages for Romney were Owsley (87), Jackson (86), Clay (84), and several others (81).  The president carried only four counties in the Commonwealth, down from eight in 2008.  Only Jefferson gave him more than 50% with a tally of 186164 to 148415.  The other three winning for Obama were Fayette - 49 to 48%, Franklin - a near tie of 49% with the president besting Romney by 190 votes, and the always reliably Democratic Elliott County, where it was 49% to 47%.  Would these numbers were bluer.  Alas and alack.

Well, on to 2016.  At this point, I'm supporting Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland - but it's early.

1 comment:

Curtis Morrison said...

Interesting details on Leslie County demographics. 1) The 2010 Census identified 22 Black people in the entire county.
2) 59.8% of adults over 25 in that county have graduated from high school, which means 40.2% have not.

The Archives at Milepost 606


Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Never married, liberal Democrat, born in 1960, opinionated but generally pleasant, member of the Episcopal Church. Graduate of Prestonia Elementary, Durrett High, and Spalding University; the first two now-closed Jefferson County Public Schools, the latter a very small liberal arts college in downtown Louisville affiliated with the Roman Catholic Sisters of Charity of Nazareth. My vocation and avocation is politics. My favorite pastime is driving the backroads of Kentucky and southern Indiana, visiting small towns, political hangouts, courthouses, churches, and cemeteries. You are welcome to ride with me sometime.