Northup the Challenger; A Challenge for Northup

Today's post is an essay written to a Mr. Magruder, who like me posts comments on other blogs. One of his comments read, in part, as follows:

"How could Northup win? Easy. Most of the state is still conservative. She's a
fighter in campaigns. Many voters might like to see a woman governor again. And
even many Louisvillians who voted for Yarmuth might like to see Northup's clear
energy representing our state, after successive anemic administrations from both
parties."

What follows is my response to Mr. Magruder.

Mr. Magruder:

I have just spent six months meeting some of the voters who put put Mr. Yarmuth in Washington. I suppose there are a few of them who might vote for Anne, but I can tell you, it was none of those we encountered along the campaign trail. As the campaign progressed, the voters could have been divided into three types. At any given event, there were those who were overzealous in their support of Yarmuth, thrilled that a real liberal was finally running again. We knew we had their votes. Then there were the folks who would simply shake the hands, wish us well, and say good luck. We had their votes as well, but they probably felt we weren't going to win. Then there were the "whiperers." They would come up to Yarmuth at an event, usually from behind, look around to see who was watching and listening, and whisper in John's ear that "we are for you." They didn't want anyone to know they were crossing back over, but they were.

As time went by, the number of whisperers became fewer and fewer. They moved from being whisperers to well wishers and hand shakers, and finally from hand shakers to zealots. As the campaign progressed from the West End to the Southwest, to the South End, and ultimately to the Southeast, all along a well-planned but fluid schedule, and all well orchestrated as any had ever been under the tutelage of Yarmuth's volunteer director, Ben Basil, the evidence was building that people who had been voting for Anne for years weren't going to this time. Some of it had to do with the bridges (or lack thereof), others - many, if not most - were upset with her support of President Bush's war. Many just wanted a change.

Those who moved on principle might go back and give an experienced legislator a second chance. Many of us get and give second chances. If there are any Yarmuth voters who might vote for Northup, it would be amongst these. Those who voted for John Yarmuth and against the president's war are not likely at all to vote for Anne, especially given Bush's new plan for a surge in forces and spending. Finally, anyone who wants change will vote for it. Change transcends party identification for many people. In 2003, those voters sought a change from the Democrats, mostly over Governor Patton's personal choices, not over his successes in government. Those same folks will vote for change again. They will votes the "ins" out. What that really means is they will vote out the Republican at the top of the ticket, whoever it may be. Should formidable Democrats step up in those down ballot races against Messrs. Grayson and Farmer, it is possible that they may be thrown out too, but it probably isn't likely. We may never know.

Numbers prove that Anne has an average of 133,000 votes locked in in Jefferson County. Contested governor's races require the winner to garner over 500,000 votes. Can an anti-tobacco woman from Louisville, one who failed to deliver to her district the one signature deal she promised (a bridge - or two) convince 367,000 out in the state to support her? I don't know. I think the key to any possible victory for her lies in Washington, D.C. Her relationship with the president is so close. Admittedly, he remains relatively popular in Kentucky vis-a-vis other states, but he is still below 50%. He won Kentucky with 59.6% in 2004 getting just over 1,000,000 votes. He has lost at least 10% of that popularity - perhaps at least 100,000 votes. Can Anne get them back? Therein is her hope for victory.

The 2006 congressional campaigns of both Northup and Yarmuth were designed by their respective national parties. The Republican Party wanted the 3rd CD race to a local referendum. The Democratic Party wanted the 3rd CD race to be a national referendum, and it was. The 2007 governor's race must be ran and won in the same manner. It must be a referendum of the failed policies of the national Republican Party. Beating Fletcher will be easier because of his local foibles. But beating any Republican is enhanced by the failings of George W. Bush, especially as they relate to his - and by extension Mrs. Northup's - war. In 2007, there will be only three races for governor across the Republic. It is fair to say that two of those will be easy for the challenger, and one of those will be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Blanco, D-La., will likely lose, maybe to a Republican in the fall, but hopefully to a Democrat in the primary. If they throw her out in the Primary, the Democrats will spend some money there, but if she is the Primary nominee, national money will be in short supply. Keep in mind Louisiana also has these runoffs and other election oddities and truthfully, I've never fully understood how they ever get anybody elected.

Barbour, R-Miss., will easily win. The national Democratic Party probably doesn't even know where Mississippi is, and for good reason. Not that is pleases me, but facts are facts.

That leaves us. In 2004, our Democratic candidate for US senator nearly defeated an incumbent Republican - albeit one who is allegedly 117 years old. In 2006, we re-elected one rather conservative Democrat without opposition to the Congress, and sent another rather liberal one there to join him. After hastily and very tardily getting into the 3rd CD race in 2006, no thanks to Rahm Emanuel, and with great thanks to former President Bill Clinton [brought to Kentucky by its Democratic Party Chair, Jerry Lundergan], the national party will be much more attentive to our little state in 2007. Again, if we make the race for governor a referendum on the state of the Republic under the guidance of the national Republican Party, neither Ernie Fletcher, nor any other Republican, should be occupying the Executive Mansion, come the fifth Tuesday succeeding this fall's election.